causal inference

The causal effect of an intervention (treatment/exposure) on an outcome can be estimated by: i) specifying knowledge about the data-generating process; ii) assessing under what assumptions a target quantity, such as for example a causal odds ratio, can be identified given the specified knowledge (and given the measured data); and then, iii) using appropriate statistical estimation techniques to estimate the desired parameter of interest.

The Republic of South Africa (SA) faced repeated episodes of temporary power shutdowns in 2014/2015, but also in the years thereafter. Based on my co-author’s experience at the burns unit at Red Cross children’s hospital, we had the hypothesis that this may have caused an increase in pediatric hospital admissions.